In the FRC Blogger Briefing with Ramesh Ponnuru one of the subjects that came up was what we are likely to see politically in the next two years on the subject of abortion.
His basic prediction was that we will have a number of significant battles as Democratic lawmakers try to reverse gains made by pro-lifers. Specifically, he thought that they are likely to try to reverse the Mexico City Policy, which prohibits US foreign aid being given to nongovernmental organizations that perform or promote abortion, to allow abortions on military bases again, and to patent human embryos.
This was interesting to me. In light of the Democrats’ realization that abortion is hurting them, it would be shrewd of them to keep the abortion genie in its bottle until after the 2008 elections. It was sounding less strident on the subject that helped them gain control of Congress, and if they immediately go all shrill on the subject again then it will remind voters of their recent weddedness to abortion and put them at a disadvantage come 2008.
So in the question period of the briefing, I asked Ramesh about this.
He said that he didn’t think that the Democrats would lead with the subject of abortion–that they wouldn’t put it on the front burner when they take control of Congress in January.
He acknowledged that this is "a potentially explosive issue in their caucus" and described a struggle in the party between those Democrats who were elected as pro-lifers (or pretending to be pro-lifers), saying that they wouldn’t want to have to "choose between the values of their districts and the values of Nancy Pelosi." But other Democrats would say, "Look, on these narrow abortion-related issues, the polling is good and we can win." He also could see DailyKos and similar folks weighing in in favor of taking up abortion.
Ultimately, he said, he didn’t think that the Democrats would be able to keep the pro-abortion wing of the party bottled up, saying that you are already seeing some on the left stating that the Mexico City Policy is a terrible, inhuman thing, that it’s killing people, and that if Nancy Pelosi doesn’t take it on then she’s spineless–a wimp.
I also asked Ramesh whether, if the Democrats do push the abortion issue, it is likely to give pro-lifers and opportunity to expose the insincerity of some Democratic politicians who try to present themselves as more pro-life than they are (what you might call PLINOs).
He said it absolutely would create such an opportunity and, if I understood him correctly, he thought that it would be of general benefit to the pro-life cause. One of the problems with the recent elections, he said, was that values voters didn’t have a lot to vote on. Abortion was not a central issue this election, and so many social conservatives ended up voting not on the values issues but on matters where they felt more in tune with the Democrats, such as the War or economic issues. If the values issues took center stage again, it would help pro-lifers.
He also addressed at some length the "common ground" tactic that some pro-aborts are using at present, saying that we should seek common ground by trying to reduce the number of abortions through things such as contraception.
Now, I would point out–and I’m speaking for myself rather than summarizing what Ramesh said at this point–that this common ground initiative is a sign of weakness on the part of pro-abort forces. It’s an attempt to shift the spotlight off of abortion, which hurts them politically, onto other issues on which they think they can win–or at least sound less extreme to voters. It’s also disingenuous, because the initiatives that they recommend we undertake (more contraception, more sex-ed, etc.) would not do diddly-do to decrease abortions. In fact, they would increase the number of abortions. That’s been the experience of the last thirty-five years, and that’s what would replicate in the future if these initiatives were pushed further than they have been.
Yet there is a politically shrewd side to this approach because contraception is widely supported by the American public. Even most in the Catholic and Evangelical communities support it, though orthodox Catholics don’t and many Evangelicals are coming around on it. As a result, not only do pro-lifers lose support from non-values voters if the issue is framed in this way (i.e., on contraception rather than abortion) but a split develops in pro-life ranks on the question as well.
Ramesh’s solution to this problem was to suggest that pro-lifers refuse to allow the issue to be defined in these terms and to suggest counter-proposals on how to limit abortion, such as new regulations on third-trimester abortions and cutting tax-payer funding for abortions. He cited the latter in particular–refusing to subsidize abortion with public funds–as a historically-proven way of reducing the number of abortions.
He also, in a somewhat different context, suggested revising the tax code to remove the disproportionate burden that is placed on families with children–a burden that he said has grown in recent years compared to the burden on tax-payers without children. This would help people invest more in children, which (in my opinion) is certainly something that American society needs to do for its long-term health.
Overall, Ramesh thought that "This is a pretty hopeful moment to be a pro-lifer." In spite of the recent elections, abortion is still a losing issue and pro-lifers can take the offensive and gain more ground.
Apologies, again, if I’ve mischaracterized anything, Ramesh. Just lemme know by e-mail or combox if I have. In the meantime, for more of his thought,
