Elections, Part 6: The Zippy Argument

by SDG on October 29, 2008

in Government

Continued from Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5

UPDATED: Part 6 comments link (page 4) (TypePad, this is getting old)

SDG here (not Jimmy).

In my last couple of installments, I’ve argued for the moral legitimacy of voting for the candidate you regard as the least problematic viable candidate. Given two viable candidates X and Y, to believe that the common good would be better served by a Y administration than an X administration more or less entails hoping that Y wins rather than X, which in turn more or less entails hoping that other voters like oneself who share the preference for Y over X (“Y-friendlies”) actually vote for Y in greater numbers than those on the other side who prefer X vote for X. And what we hope to see others like ourselves do, we ought to do ourselves.

I have also argued that an individual vote for candidate Y can always be seen as contributing something worthwhile, not only if one lives in a toss-up state, but even if one lives in a solidly Y-friendly or even X-friendly state. An election is not entirely a threshold event; the popular vote and the margin of victory does matter insofar as it may contribute to a sense of mandate or realignment around a candidate’s agenda. This is not to deny that there might also be good to be pursued voting for a third-party candidate; my case is that both voting quixotic and voting pragmatic (by, um, different voters of course) may be seen as morally licit ways of attempting to do good.

This point of view has been vigorously resisted by some, including Mark Shea and Zippy Catholic. Mark and Zippy are both — in the sense previously defined — “McCain-friendly,” not meaning that they like McCain at all, but that they prefer him to Obama. Mark has said that he would vote for McCain if he thought there were proportionate reason to do so, and Zippy has said that if one could push a button and make McCain president by fiat, as opposed to casting a negligible vote for him, it would be legitimate to do so.

However, Mark and Zippy argue that the actual negligible impact of any one vote does not constitute a proportionate reason to cast a vote for a candidate who supports direct killing of the innocent, as McCain supports embryonic stem-cell research.

Note, incidentally, that even if McCain were to have a Damascus-road experience on ESCR, Mark and Zippy might still be obliged to oppose him, on the grounds that McCain’s opposition to abortion allows for exceptions for rape and incest, which is still killing the innocent. And even if he changed his mind on that, they might still have to oppose him if he allowed for abortion only to save the life of the mother, but failed to differentiate between direct and indirect abortion, since Catholic moral theology generally considers direct abortion to be killing the innocent.

For those refuse to vote for any candidate who fails to condemn all killing of the innocent, there is no major-party candidate since Roe v. Wade, including Ronald Reagan, they could have supported. I’m not sure they could even vote for Chuck Baldwin (I don’t know whether Baldwin distinguishes direct abortion from indirect).

The issue is further complicated by the fact that Mark and Zippy are not merely voting quixotic, but campaigning quixotic — actively discouraging voters from choosing either major-party ticket, encouraging them to vote quixotic instead. Here their potential contribution to the outcome becomes much harder to calculate. Mark’s blog is widely read; his ideas reach tens of thousands of readers, and ripple out to innumerable others. There is no way to know how many votes next week could be affected by quixotic advocacy from Mark and others like him. In principle, it is not impossible that such advocacy could play a significant role in undercutting support for McCain and clearing the way for an Obama victory.

That said, if Mark and Zippy believe that voting for either of the major-party candidates is morally unjustified by any proportionate reason, it may be reasonable for them to seek to discourage their fellow Catholics from engaging in unjustified behavior, however inconvenient the consequences may be. The fundamental question is: Are their concerns warranted? Is their reasoning sound? Does voting for a candidate who supports any form of killing the innocent involve remote material cooperation in evil in a way or to a degree disproportionate to the good of trying to defeat an even worse candidate?

Lurking behind this question is a principle of moral theology called the law of double effect. Double effect governs the morality of acts that have, or can be reasonably foreseen to have, both good and bad effects or consequences. For example, amputating a cancerous limb leaves the amputee crippled (bad effect), but saves his life (good effect). Less dramatically, taking a job fifty minutes from home may cost you gas money, vehicular wear and tear, and emotional stress (bad effect), but it but allows you to support your household (good effect).

Acts which have mixed effects — which, when you get right down to it, includes pretty much everything we do — are considered morally licit if they meet certain criteria. These criteria can be variously formulated; here is one variation:

  1. The act itself is permissible (at least neutral, or good). Intrinsically evil acts, such as the direct taking of innocent life or adultery, can never be justified.

  2. The acting agent intends or desires the act for the sake of the good effect(s). He may foresee and accept the evil effects, but he does not desire them.

  3. This entails that, for example, if there is a better way to achieve the good effects while minimizing or eliminating the evil effects, the agent must pursue that course rather than the more harmful one.

  4. The evil effect must not be the cause of the good effect. (Thus, for example, you might save some lives at the cost of other lives, but you could not directly kill innocent people in order to pacify a madman and stop him from killing greater numbers of people.)

  5. The evil effects must not outweigh the good effects; the good must be proportionate to the harm done.

An everyday example: You buy a product in a store, or from a store owned by a company, that also sells contraceptives or pornography. In a small way, your purchase contributes to keeping those products on the market from that distributor. This is a form of remote material cooperation in evil, though it is very remote, and the immediate and direct good of having the product that you need outweighs that tiny element of cooperation in evil. (You might have a go at buying from another distributor, but there is virtually no way to entirely avoid all such cooperation. Most products you buy probably advertise in venues owned by companies that support some sort of evil; some tiny part of your purchases will go to those advertising budgets, etc.)

To support, advocate or vote for a candidate whose agenda includes some form of intrinsic evil, including murdering the innocent in any form, is a form of remote material cooperation in evil. With respect to the practical impact of the vote itself on the election, the negligible impact of each individual vote obviously greatly mitigates the voter’s involvement in whatever evil the candidate might do, as well as the voter’s contribution to whatever good the candidate might do. The minimal impact of individual votes tells equally against the good and bad consequences of casting the vote; with respect to the outcome of the election, the evil effects of the individual vote do not seem disproportionate to the good effects, so there seems to be no difficulty here.

However, the consequences Mark and Zippy are concerned about go beyond the actual impact of the vote on the election to the moral and social effects on individuals and groups, not just of voting for, but also of advocating a candidate who supports any form of murdering the innocent. Here is Zippy’s summary of his argument from his blog:

  1. Murdering the innocent is the singular act which is most radically opposed to the common good, so much so that when sanctioned by authority it undercuts the very foundation of legitimate authority (see Evangelium Vitae);

  2. Voting is a civic ritual in which we express our submission to legitimate authority and co-responsibility for the common good (see the Catechism);

  3. Because of the radical opposition between (1) and (2), there is always some harm done to the person and those around him in voting for a candidate who supports murdering the innocent;

  4. This harm far, far outweighs any influence one’s vote has over the outcome in national elections, because in national elections one’s influence is very, very small;

  5. As votes aggregate in influence over the outcome, the outcome-independent harm also aggregates in influence;

  6. Therefore the outcome-independent harm in voting for a national candidate who supports murdering the innocent always far outweighs any concomitant influence over the outcome

Zippy’s argument turns on the crucial third premise: that the “radical opposition” between, on the one hand, the total illegitimacy of laws legitimizing the direct killing of the innocent, and, on the other, the moral nature of voting as an act of submission to legitimate authority and co-responsibility for the common good, is such that “there is always some harm done to the person and those around him in voting for a candidate who supports murdering the innocent.”

As I pointed out earlier, this logic would seem to compel us to conclude that harm is likewise done both to the agent as well as to others in the very different, but still relevant, scenario posed by Pope John Paul II in Evangelium Vitae, of a pro-life official casting a decisive vote for a law that restricts but does not outlaw abortions. (With apologies to those who read it in the previous combox, the next several paragraphs are adapted for the most part verbatim from my combox response.)

Here is the pope’s scenario:

A particular problem of conscience can arise in cases where a legislative vote would be decisive for the passage of a more restrictive law, aimed at limiting the number of authorized abortions, in place of a more permissive law already passed or ready to be voted on. … when it is not possible to overturn or completely abrogate a pro-abortion law, an elected official, whose absolute personal opposition to procured abortion was well known, could licitly support proposals aimed at limiting the harm done by such a law and at lessening its negative consequences at the level of general opinion and public morality. This does not in fact represent an illicit cooperation with an unjust law, but rather a legitimate and proper attempt to limit its evil aspects.

First the dissimilarities: The pope’s scenario involves an elected official (not a voter) whose legislative vote for a particular law would be decisive (not one vote among millions in any given state) for a particular law (not a particular candidate).

Some of these dissimilarities diminish the overall applicability of the underlying principles to our current topic; others increase it. However, in one crucial respect they are the same: Both involve the same sort of “radical opposition” noted in the third point of Zippy’s argument regarding the evil of murdering the innocent and the duty of the individual, whether a private citizen or (much more) a public official, to promote the common good.

Whether the vote is likely to be decisive or not, although quite relevant to the end conclusion, goes to step (4) in Zippy’s argument, and is not relevant at the earlier stage. Following the structure of Zippy’s argument, it seems that the pope’s scenario would be subject to the following analysis:

  1. Murdering the innocent is the singular act which is most radically opposed to the common good, so much so that when sanctioned by authority it undercuts the very foundation of legitimate authority (see Evangelium Vitae);

  2. Public witness to our faith “is especially incumbent upon those who, by virtue of their social or political position, must make decisions regarding fundamental values, such as respect for human life, its defence from conception to natural death, the family built upon marriage between a man and a woman, the freedom to educate one’s children and the promotion of the common good in all its forms … Catholic politicians and legislators, conscious of their grave responsibility before society, must feel particularly bound, on the basis of a properly formed conscience, to introduce and support laws inspired by values grounded in human nature” (see Sacramentum Caritatis)

  3. Because of the radical opposition between (1) and (2), there is always some harm done to the elected offical and those around him in voting for a law that partially legitimizes murdering the innocent.

Indeed, the opposition here is much more radical than in the original case, since (a) the vote is for a specific law on the brink of passage, not one of two candidates with countless positives and negatives to consider, agendas that might never get enacted, etc., and (b) the elected official’s responsibility obliges him much more strictly to “support laws inspired by values grounded in human nature.”

Now, this doesn’t mean that Zippy must conclude that the official’s support of the law is unjustified. Given the decisive influence of the official’s vote, the good to be achieved by this vote could be considered proportionate to the harm suggested by Zippy’s argument. By contrast, the argument would go, the negligible good to be achieved by a vote for McCain (one tiny click on an enormous counter that will barely register in the statewide vote, and even less in the popular vote) is not proportionate to this alleged harm, and thus does not constitute a proportionate reason to incur the harm.

Now, it is admittedly true that the official’s support of the imperfect law could, and almost certainly would, be the occasion of some harm to, say, at least some constituents and others, who would wrongly interpret it as support for, or failure to oppose, abortion itself. That’s why the pope stipulates that the official’s “absolute personal opposition to procured abortion” (and presumably to the legality of the same) be “well known,” to minimize such scandal. However, minimizing is not eliminating; some at least will be scandalized, since the official’s vote is a public act. (You see how complicated moral theology is? Almost everything involves some sort of remote material cooperation in evil.)

Similarly, Zippy’s concerns include the social consequences of pro-life advocacy for McCain, which he contends has the effect of burying the ESCR issue both in our public discourse and in our consciences. Zippy blasts National Right to Life for omitting ESCR on their abortion comparison piece of McCain and Obama (a charge bolstered by Lydia McGrew’s analysis), decries the Catholic media for “paeons [sic] to how pro-life McCain is,” and laments that “Church parking lots are filled with bumper stickers singing the praises of candidates who support murdering the innocent.”

Zippy’s critique of compromise in the pro-life movement does have some validity, and to that extent I am frankly appreciative of his efforts. By itself, though, this goes to particular cases, not to McCain advocacy as such. All candidates are elected by coalitions of coalitions who are often at cross purposes, who may not agree on anything but the preferability of their candidate. Those who support a particular candidate are not ipso facto implicated in the excesses or lapses of other supporters.

Zippy’s argument, however, seems to posit that voting for McCain somehow involves the voter in the kind of social consequences described above. But does it? Here we encounter one of the relevant dissimilarities between the pope’s scenario and our election scenario: For us, voting per se — as distinct from acts of public advocacy — is essentially a private and anonymous act.

Let’s begin with a minimum-impact scenario. Imagine a pro-life Catholic citizen whose absolute personal opposition to legalized abortion, ESCR and all the rest is well known to his friends and acquaintances. He never discusses the particulars of the election with anyone and never expresses a word of public support for or opposition to any candidate, but insists that opposition to the legalized direct killing of innocent human life must be the primary consideration. His pro-McCain friends have no reason to think that he isn’t voting for McCain, and his quixotic friends have no reason to think that he isn’t voting quixotic. On election day, he goes into the voting booth, pulls the lever for McCain, walks out, and never breathes a word to anyone.

Is anyone else harmed by this Catholic’s vote? Perhaps one might argue that some weaker brethren might be scandalized by his failure to vocally denounce (or advocate) voting for McCain (or voting quixotic). However, that would be a consequence, not of his vote, but of his silence; it would be the same no matter who he voted for.

I don’t think we can infer from the possibility of such “harm” a positive duty to engage in vocal public advocacy for the actual way you will vote in order to avoid giving scandal. Among other things, the potential harm occasioned by silence could be pitted against the potential harm occasioned by speech; there is no course of action that someone will not stumble at. To stick to principles and remain silent about your actual vote is at least a licit course of action. Therefore, our silent voter’s vote for McCain has not harmed anyone else.

But has it harmed the voter himself, as Zippy’s argument seems to suggest? If we say that it has, it would seem that we must likewise conclude that the official in the pope’s scenario, who rightly casts a decisive vote for legislation restricting but not ending abortion, also harms himself as well as others, even if there is a proportionate reason for the official to harm himself in this way (because his vote is decisive) whereas (Zippy argues) there is not in our case.

I submit, however, that neither moral theology, nor common sense, nor anything in Evangelium Vitae itself supports the notion that the official does himself justifiable harm by casting this vote, that this particular species of morally good act comes at a morally self-mutilating trade-off (on this more below). On the contrary, the official’s act is salutary and beneficial to his character. He knows perfectly well where he stands on abortion. He has no illusions about the acceptability of the present law or the terrible evil it still permits. He accepts this consequence without willing it, because he can’t prevent it and the good is worth doing.

In the same way, our silent voter knows very well what he is doing and why. He adamantly opposes ESCR, but he makes the practical prudential judgment that the best contribution that he and others like him can make to saving innocent lives in this election is by voting for the best chance at derailing Obama. No moral harm comes to him, or anyone else, as a result of his vote. There is thus no basis for arguing that there is no proportionate reason for his vote.

Now a modified scenario: Our silent voter is out to dinner with some pro-life friends who vocally support McCain, not in the qualified way that he does, but in a whole-hearted “He’s the pro-life guy” sort of way. When the subject of McCain’s pro-life credentials comes up, our voter objects to his friends’ unqualified McCain enthusiasm and reminds them of the evil of ESCR. He makes his case so effectively that some present, chastened, begin to wonder aloud whether they should actually be advocating McCain at all, and ask our voter whether he plans to vote at all, or to vote third party.

At this point, gratified by their change of heart, but not wanting to harm turnout for McCain, our voter breaks his silence and carefully explains why he is, in fact, voting for McCain based on the principle of double effect, remote cooperation in evil, the example of the pope’s scenario in Evangelium Vitae, and so forth.

Humbled and edified, the others begin anew their McCain advocacy in a different spirit, with a sharp awareness of McCain’s evil stance on ESCR but persuaded that votes for McCain are still votes to save babies. This leads to other conversations in which these friends confront other McCain advocates on the ESCR issue; and, when they debate Obama supporters or third-party supporters they do so in a fully pro-life spirit, without in any way minimizing the evil of ESCR.

Has our silent voter’s McCain advocacy done any harm in this scenario? On the contrary, it has done good. I can understand Zippy Catholic’s concerns about the burying of ESCR as an issue, but Catholic McCain advocacy need not be this or have this effect on individual pro-life souls. Neither individual voters nor those around them need be harmed by votes or advocacy for McCain.

This is not a hypothetical example. Zippy has decried the Catholic media and blogosphere. I don’t know what Catholic media he consumes, but my newspaper, the National Catholic Register, which is certainly “McCain-friendly” in the sense I have established, has repeatedly emphasized McCain’s pro-life problems, particularly on ESCR. For example, this election article mentions McCain’s ESCR support in the first sentence, as I did on this blog (other examples aren’t hard to find). Numerous comboxers here at JA.o have done the same.

What about NRLC? My brief today doesn’t entail carrying water for NRLC, but FWIW they haven’t entirely ignored McCain on ESCR. What about the comparison sheet Zippy mentions? It focuses on abortion, not all pro-life issues. Zippy protests that ESCR is merely a species of abortion. There are various possible responses to this, but for the sake of simplicity I’ll merely note that abortion is merely a species of murder, so shouldn’t the fact sheet deal with end-of-life issues too?

What about McCain bumper stickers in Church parking lots? Clearly Zippy, at least, is scandalized (in the colloquial sense, not the technical moral sense). But that’s because he chooses to interpret a campaign bumper sticker as “singing the praises” of the candidate named. They are not. As such, they are simply a form of propaganda encouraging others to vote for the candidate named. Unless Zippy has seen bumper stickers that say “McCain: 100% Pro-Life!”, I submit he has no call to see disproportionate cooperation in evil in McCain bumper stickers.

Unfortunately, it seems that Zippy’s conviction that McCain advocacy causes moral self-harm may dispose him to diagnose moral harm in others on inadequate grounds. In an earlier combox, Zippy accused me of “callousness with respect to McCain’s brand of murdering the innocent.” While generously stating his belief that I am a good man (a vote of confidence I’m happy to return), Zippy goes so far as to say that my writing is “a poster child” for this kind of damage.

When I protested that Zippy had “no call to be making such moral judgments against me,” he countered, “To the contrary, I am required to remonstrate moral error of such gravity – in your writing, which, not your person, is the object of my judgment – when I see it.”

At that point, I can only leave it to others to conclude for themselves what our respective writing may, or may not, be a poster child for, and how our respective views may be occasions of moral harm. (Note: Whatever conclusions you may reach in this connection, regarding either Zippy or me, PLEASE DO NOT share them in the combox. Thank you.)

In the end, Zippy’s argument goes wrong, apparently, because he posits a disproportionately “evil effect” in the moral self-harm caused by voting for a pro-ESCR candidate. From a moral theology perspective, this is backwards reasoning. Acts are not morally wrong because they cause moral self-harm; acts cause moral self-harm because they are morally wrong, either intrinsically or in view of disproportionately evil consequences. The disproportionately evil consequences that make the act evil have to be something other than the moral self-harm that will result if there are disproportionately evil consequences to be found. Zippy’s argument is an empty hall of mirrors; it is all cart, no horse.

Nor will pointing to accidental or unnecessary consequences, like NRLC’s comparative ESCR silence or other cases of insufficiently qualified McCain support, establish the wrongness of McCain voting or advocacy per se. In every war, including wars that meet the criteria for a just war, there are always unjust acts and campaigns. The Allied bombing of civilian targets in Germany was unjust and wrong. This does not mean that the Allies should not have been at war with the Axis, or that individual soldiers should have become conscientious objectors.

To whatever extent that pro-lifers engage, jointly or severally, in unqualified McCain advocacy, other pro-lifers ought to resist and oppose this, as I and many other pro-life voters have done. I see no grounds for concluding that this entails, or can only be legitimately pursued by or in connection with, voting third party. (Whether voting third party is the best way to pursue this I leave open as a judgment call to the individual voter.)

In sum, I don’t see that anything Zippy — or Mark — has said refutes the argument I have made in the last two posts for voting for the candidate you see as the least problematic viable candidate. Anyone who feels that the public good would be better served by voting third party is welcome to do so, but the claim that the public good is not served by McCain advocacy has not been substantiated.

Finally, one last point. At least one reader has commented that he would feel better about McCain advocacy if it were clear that more McCain advocates had thought through the issues and were aware of the problematic implications of voting for McCain. Again, that goes to individual cases, not to advocacy as such, but there is a further point to be made.

Some polemics on the quixotic side seem to be operating on an unstated assumption that, whereas McCain advocacy comes with various moral dangers and pitfalls, third-party advocacy is somehow the morally “safe” choice. As long as you choose a completely pro-life third-party candidate, one who does not advocate killing the innocent in any form, you don’t have to worry about cooperation with evil.

This is nonsense. All moral choices come with moral dangers and pitfalls, and cooperation with evil is always in the cards in nearly everything we do. In this election there are no moral choices that do not involve some form of remote material cooperation with the culture of death, with killing the innocent.

Those who advocate quixotic voting may do so partly to avoid complicity in the burying of ESCR as an issue and partly as an act of hope for change in future elections. However, such advocacy comes at the potential cost of contributing to erosion of McCain support, thereby contributing to the likelihood of an Obama victory — or an Obama realignment.

In addition, by attacking McCain advocacy as a valid pro-life option, the quixotic critics may actually help move others who might have supported McCain, but are not willing to go third party, to conclude that, since pro-life isn’t a reason to vote for McCain anyway, they might as well vote for Obama. By the same token, repudiating McCain advocacy as a valid pro-life option salves the consciences of those who were leaning toward voting for Obama anyway but were bothered by pro-life related concerns. 

I’m not saying that quixotic advocacy has the moral character of voting for Obama. Of course it doesn’t. However, it does have the effect of making an Obama win (or realignment) more likely than if, say, the quixotic advocates were simply silent about their views.

That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t advocate quixotic. It does mean that they should be aware of the potential consequences, and regard the good to be achieved as proportionate to the potential for harm. The potential for harm is substantial. So we could equally say that we could feel better about both McCain advocacy and quixotic advocacy if it were clear that more advocates on both sides had thought through the issues and were aware of the problematic implications of their chosen course of action.

In closing, I hope to post at least once more before the election, addressing various possible objections to the arguments I have proposed throughout this series.

Continued from Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5

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Jonathan, you are rude and you are either terrible at math, terrible at reading comprehension or both. [insults continued ad absurdum]
CT, this was completely unwarranted and unfair. Jonathan was a gentleman about it, and did not object, but I do.

I apologize once more.
Your correction actually makes my point stronger. Your correction would skew the empirical historical data even more in the direction of the point I was making.
So I thank you for your correction and assume that it was in good faith made to bolster my point and argument rather than made in bad faith to embarasss someone who is skilled at embarassing himself left to his own devices.
I thank you for making my argument stronger and teaching me not to let passion lead to impulsive and unthinking posts.

I apologize. It could have relevance in terms of evaluating the truth of the empirical claim regarding historical election results and it could thus have relevance in evaluating "marginal political impact" in terms of press coverage and so forth based on those same results.
I assumed -- correctly in my view judging from your moniker -- that your post was not in good faith, but that led me to not appropriately respond to the objective point that might have been made assuming one was intended and for that I apologize. In the spirit of SDG though I do not repent of my assumption for I believe it was the correct one to make both methodologically and factually.
I do apologize however for the assumption that you are The Masked Chicken. I don't know whether you are Jonathan, Chicken, Tim J, SDG, or some other indiividual who has posted in this thread or perhaps in some statistically unlikely occurence someone who has yet to comment in this thread.
BTW, congratulations on your arithmetic skills. Perhaps you could help me also with applying forcing techniques to first order set theory. We use a lot of arithmetic there. Actually, we do .....

To be more emphatic, that arithmetic error is also totally irrelevant to my point. Thank you though for pointing something irrelevant out.

You are right, Chicken. But my point still stands. In any event, that wasn't the mathematical error that Jonathan thought I had made.

The victory ratio is 9 to 1 (720/90) as I also pointed out.
Wouldn't that be 8 to 1?

Jonathan, you are rude and you are either terrible at math, terrible at reading comprehension or both.
Fair enough, then; your heart is in the right place, but you're not very good at math. Each new voter necessarily affects the turnout margin (which is a percentage of total voters, i.e., divided by a larger denominator) less than he does the margin (which is a percentage only of those that voted).
You are either dishonest or do not even have elementary school level mathematical skills or high school level reading comprehension skills. Listen, to borrow a page from the Chicken, I was studying college-level mathematics when I was about 10 years old and actually studied at the college level once I entered high school. I know about what you wrote and it is irrelevant to any point I made, which you either did not understand or understood but decided to be dishonest about. I will charitably assume you did not understand and that my typos and poor writing skills greatly contributed to it.
I made no mathematical errors.
First. I was speaking of "marginal POLITICAL IMPACT" and that same word "MARGINAL" harkens back to the original "marginal POLITICAL IMPACT" as well as all the stuff in between which you evidently did not understand. I was NOT making any claim about a vote having a margial impact on turnout percentage greater or lesser than its marginal impact on margin of victory.
Let's make this simple for you. You have 1000 voters.
Scenario 1 900 vote and 720 vote for A and 180 vote for B.
Then the turn out is 90% (900/1000) as I pointed out. The victory ratio (I assume you know what a ratio is) is 4 to 1 (720/180), as I also pointed out.
Scenario 2 90 of those that voted for B in Scenario 1 decide to sit out.
Then, only 810 vote and of these 720 still vote for A and only 90 vote for B.
Then the turn out is 81% (810/1000) as I pointed out. The victory ratio is 9 to 1 (720/90) as I also pointed out.
Now you point out something totally irrelevant to any point I made (I am going to clean up your own math to higher standards to make your "point" as good as can be), namely that the absolute increase in victory ratio (namely 4/1 - 9/1) is greater than the absolute decrease in turn out ration (namely 9/10-81/100). My point, to simplify it and bastardize it was that elections with 90% turnout are RARER than elections decided by a 9 to 1 ratio. Count up the number of elections decided by a 9 to 1 or greater ratio and count up the number decided by a 90% turnout and the latter number will be less. That was the kind of "numers" I was referring to (not the precise numbers, but the kind of numbers). These numbers are not directly related to marginal political impact. By the way the way these numbers come out is an EMPIRICAL, HISTORICAL question of fact and has NOTHING to do with mathematics. I did make a typo in one of the sentences that may have caused confusion but it should have been clear from the "In other words" sentence that followed. In any event, the typo if accepted literally without correcting for it would have AGREED with your conclusion, so your quoting of the typo-ridden sentence is not really a testimony to your mathematical abilities. Anyway, the "marginal POLITICAL IMPACT" is a result of "press coverage" and other significance society gives to it, as I mentioned and alluded to. Also, I said I simplified and bastardized the more precise view captured in my original "In other words" sentence and its context. I won't bother trying to be more precise as that would undoubtedly just confuse you or remove any clarity I have newly introduced for you. Let's just say though that the WOW factor of a 90% turn out MINUS the WOW factor of an 81% turn out is greater than the WOW factor of a 9 to 1 victory versus the WOW factor of a 4 to 1 victory. Maybe you agree with that but you dispute the correspondence of these figures. If so, look over again at the kindergarten math above in Scenario 1 and 2 and know that my "heart is in the right place" as you mentioned even though my tone here in this post may be brusque due to my hurriedness. Instead of taking the time to revise this post, please in your great understanding, accept my apology in that regard.

CT/Charel Weng/catholic maverick,
Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. I have not laughed that hard all week, and I really needed it. Your valiant defense and simultaneous brutal abuse of the English language was priceless! Encore! Encore!

Do you think it's fair to conclude that voting for Obama as a Catholic in this election is a grave sin?

I do conclude that such a vote entails materially grave offense, yes.

SDG,
Do you think it's fair to conclude that voting for Obama as a Catholic in this election is a grave sin?
Thanks

... you should vote against him.
(oops! forgot the conclusion)

This is because the number of elections that are decided on a 9 to 1 basis versus a 4 to 1 basis involves a difference greater than the number of elections that are decided with 90% turn out versus an 81% basis.
...This same or similar marginal analysis would be true of this particular election.
Fair enough, then; your heart is in the right place, but you're not very good at math. Each new voter necessarily affects the turnout margin (which is a percentage of total voters, i.e., divided by a larger denominator) less than he does the margin (which is a percentage only of those that voted). Therefore, by your reasoning and taken on the margin, because your damage to his margin will necessarily be more significant than the increase to his mandate.

1. I am a theist, suitably defined.

Well, that's good hearing, CT/cath mav. Taking this at face value, without peering excessively into suitable definitions, I'm happy to apologize for mischaracterizing your present views.

2. Why do you assume I do not believe in a Judgment Day?

When did I do that?

3. On ignorance of the primary definition of the word "catholic" which does not include any relation or reference to Catholicism the religion, that is not something I am obligated to make constrain my parlance. If I say that I am feeling gay today and many assume that means I am a homosexual, that may involve a sin of scandal and arguably it is imprudent.

I don't see the need to revise anything I said on the basis of these comments. FWIW, nobody who means to say anything relating to homosexuality says they are "feeling gay today." For that matter, nobody who means to express their mood says that either; the phrase as such is essentially an archaism, though you're welcome to use it, and I think most people will know what you're talking about.

5. You stated that Don Quixote was "confusing" "being a Catholic" with "being a deonotologist", implying that one can be a Catholic without accepting the essence of deontology as differentiated in that context.

That is correct. Your earlier assertion is not.

I noticed you do not state whether you are a deontologist, consequentialist, virtue ethicist or some other.

I didn't think it was relevant. I tend to find virtue ethics most persuasive.

You, reading that would have assumed I gather, had he been anonymous, that he was a Catholic and gave in this portion of the text at least the impression that he was one. But he is not a Catholic. He is Alvin Plantinga.

I think sufficient differences in content and context have already been noted or are immediately evident to more or less moot any parallel force of this example.

1. I am a theist, suitably defined. This does not mean though that I have an aversion to arguing against theism or arguing against arguments for theism, good or bad. As both a philosopher and someone who has in the past engaged in professional debate, he enjoys and sees the value of this.
2. Why do you assume I do not believe in a Judgment Day? In any event, I was speaking to my audience and addressing there primarily the matter of formal sinfulness not material sinfulness. Indeed, whether you believe in a Judgment Day or not, the thought I suggested would have been useful in moral action.
3. On ignorance of the primary definition of the word "catholic" which does not include any relation or reference to Catholicism the religion, that is not something I am obligated to make constrain my parlance. If I say that I am feeling gay today and many assume that means I am a homosexual, that may involve a sin of scandal and arguably it is imprudent. But adopting this strategy of prudence leads to the emasculation of the English language, part of culture, and per the teaching of popes, as an authentic part of culture, a gift of God.
4. If the basis for my believing that say the English langauage as a part of culture should be cherished were based on arcane philosophy rather than on papal dicta, then in the course of conversation such as above, it may be more useful to do something as above which may seem to readers who approach blogs with a microscopic obssession as a disingenous affectation but which would be accepted by more composed and reasonable persons as a proper and pragmatic use of language.
5. You stated that Don Quixote was "confusing" "being a Catholic" with "being a deonotologist", implying that one can be a Catholic without accepting the essence of deontology as differentiated in that context. I noticed you do not state whether you are a deontologist, consequentialist, virtue ethicist or some other.
6. Philosophers who are non-Catholic cite magisterial texts all the time. Non-believers cite the Bible all the time, even as an authority. For example, non-believers may cite the Bible as an authority for some proverbial wisdom, even though they do not believe in its divine authorship. Let's consider this passage written by a philosopher which begins his discussion of fides et ratio, an encyclical of JPII which in my judgment was rather intellectually weak:
The last years have seen a remarkable series of letters and encyclicals from Pope John Paul II. The most remarkable, in my opinion, is Salvifici Doloris ("The Christian Meaning of Human Suffering"), published in 1984—surely one of the finest documents (outside the Bible) ever written on this topic, and surely required reading for anyone interested in the so-called problem of evil, or the problems that suffering can pose for the Christian spiritual life or, more generally, the place of suffering in the life of the Christian. Last fall the pope issued another in the series: Fides et Ratio ("Faith and Reason"). This one doesn't strike me as having the sheer depth and power of Salvifici; and perhaps its message is also a little blurred, hard to get completely in focus.
You, reading that would have assumed I gather, had he been anonymous, that he was a Catholic and gave in this portion of the text at least the impression that he was one. But he is not a Catholic. He is Alvin Plantinga
http://www.ctlibrary.com/bc/1999/julaug/9b4032.htm...

CT:
Whether or not you explicitly laid claim to Catholic faith is a side issue. You placed the discussion in the context of Catholic faith by citing authoritative magisterial texts and discussing which are most authoritative on a Catholic blog and taking for granted points of Catholic faith with respect to the morality of abortion and Judgment Day. (In the absence of further context and given your self-identification as "catholic maverick," whether caps or not, at least creates the impression of being a Catholic.) You then presumed to offer Catholics an ostensible moral standard, apparently within the context of a common worldview, for judging their vote in view of Judgment Day.
Given your past history on this blog, including your past discussion on abortion, it is my judgment that, without prejudice to the demands of justice, charity and hope for conversion, I can reasonably suspect of, and publicly implicate you in, disingenuous intent. Charity does not demand that we ignore probability. If you have embraced theism, my soul rejoices for you, and I will be more than happy to apologize for (but not repent of) my inadvertent (but not unjust or uncharitable) mischaracterization of your present views. If you haven't, it's just more smoke-blowing by a tireless practitioner of the art.
On point 4, please review your logic. I made no such claim.

Glad to hear you are a theist now, CT.

1. catholic maverick did not identify himself as a Catholic be it Roman, Eastern, Orthodox, or Anglo. Truth: he identified himself as catholic in his maverickness, both words lower case. Distortion: he identified himself as a Catholic Maverick, uppercase, not that being uppercase is dispositive but being lowercase is.
2. catholic maverick apologizes for the typos and grammatical errors made such as saying "greater" rather than "lower" etc.
3. If catholic maverick was in some past life a non-theist, then it is materially a sin against charity to assume that he is a non-theist today if as you believe had he not been he would have been affecting to a piety entailing theistic belief. There is nothing to rule out for example that catholic maverick rejected Catholicism but has now embraced it. If there were genuine concern for his soul, then there would be genuine hope for his soul, something whose absence is betrayed by the unqualified assumption that he is a non-theist today.
4. I noticed you claimed Catholicism was incompatible with deontological ethics. You may be a consequentialist or subscribe to virtue ethics, but Catholicism is decidedly not incompatible with deontological ethics. In fact, the doctrine that some acts are intrinsically evil entails deontology in ethics. Deontological ethics states merely that some acts are evil by nature. Denying that may make you an avant garde Catholic, joining the avant garde spirit of Karl Rahner and Hans Kung, personal friend of Pope Benedict whom Pope Benedict has met since ascending to the Throne of Vicar of God the Son and visible Head of the Church; but it does not place you in the mainstream of traditional Catholicism. Contemporary Catholicism, perhaps.
5. Sitting out would as pointed out affect both the popular vote and turn out. But, it is the electoral landslide not popular landslide that gets the most press. Moreover, the marginal political impact of an increase in popular vote margin from, a 4 to 1 victory to a 9 to 1 is less than the marginal political impact of an increase in turn out from say 81% to 90% -- both margins involve the same numbers sitting out against similar percentage turn outs and popular vote tallies. This is because the number of elections that are decided on a 9 to 1 basis versus a 4 to 1 basis involves a difference greater than the number of elections that are decided with 90% turn out versus an 81% basis. In other words, 9 to 1 (or better) victories are not as rare relative to 4 to 1 (or better) victories as 90% turn outs are rare relative to 81% turnouts. This same or similar marginal analysis would be true of this particular election.

CT,
The best thing to do to slow down the liberal avalanche is to sit out this election. The landslide electorally and in the popular vote is largely set in stone. What is not as set in stone is the turn out. A landslide electorally combined with a record turnout will be a double mandate.
Umm... So you're saying that a landslide popular vote is "set in stone," but the turnout is not??? How can I have an impact on the turnout but not on the popular vote? Or are you just hoping I'm stupid enough to swallow this line and sit home anyway?

I would not ordinarily do this, but it is warranted by extenuating circumstances: "Catholic Maverick," you seem to be our non-theist gadfly CT.
LOL. Welcome back, CT. 8]

Regardless who wins, the Bible commands us to pray for our leaders.

Charel Weng,
Y...A...W...N...
Take care and God bless,
Inocencio
J+M+J

Another good idea a Knight of Columbus forwarded to me:
"I shared the following inspiration with someone today and she told me that it was a great idea and that we should try to spread it quickly. So here it is -
we should petition all the aborted babies in Heaven to intercede for us in this election. There are millions of them, and so precious to God, can you imagine the power????
In addition to prayer and fasting, the intercession of these little ones can be a powerful secret weapon that the other side could certainly never use.
'Victory in war does not depend upon the size of the army, but on strength that comes from Heaven.' (1Maccabees 3:19)
If you think this is a good idea, please pass it along to as many people as you can.
Fr. Richard Drabik"

+J.M.J+
Don't know whether anyone will read this, but if you do please pause to pray for our country and its future on this Election Day.
Our father's God to Thee,
Author of liberty,
To Thee we sing.
Long may our land be bright,
With freedom's holy light,
Protect us by Thy might,
Great God our King.*
Immaculate Mary, Patroness of the United States, pray for the USA during this dark and uncertain time. Our Lady of Guadalupe, Queen of the Americas and Mother of the Unborn, pray that the pro-life cause prevails in our nation. Terror of demons and destroyer of heresies, crush the abortion industry under your feet to the glory of your Son. O Mary conceived without sin, pray for us who have recourse to you.
O Glorious Guardian Angel of the United States, to whom God has entrusted the care of our beloved country, we honor you and thank you for the care and protection you have given to this great nation from the first moment of its conception. O powerful Angel Guardian, whose watchful glance encompasses this vast land from shore to shore, we know that our sins have grieved you and marred the beauty of our heritage. Pray for us, O Holy Angel, before the Throne of God. Obtain for us, from the Queen of Heaven, the graces we need to overcome the forces of evil so rampant in our beloved land. Help us, our God-given protector and friend, to offer the prayer and sacrifice necessary to bring peace and goodness to our nation. We want to make you known and loved throughout our land, so that with your help we may become once more “one nation under God”. Amen
Saints John Neumann, Frances Xavier Cabrini, Elizabeth Ann Seton, Katherine Drexel and all the saints from the USA, those canonized and those known only to God, please pray for your former homeland in its hour of need. Blessed be God in His Angels and in His Saints. Amen.
In Jesu et Maria,
Rosemarie
*"My Country, 'Tis of Thee" by Samuel Francis Smith, stanza 4

Only vote for McCain if your conscience would be clear on Judgment Day when facing an embryo slaughtered by the McCain machine, you could tell him that you are proud of your vote.

I would not ordinarily do this, but it is warranted by extenuating circumstances: "Catholic Maverick," you seem to be our non-theist gadfly CT.
You have rejected the Catholic faith, and it is disingenuous of you to affect to Catholic piety in order to subvert the Catholic vote.
Pursuant to the point you make, no reputable examination of conscience booklet asks a person if they can say they have done only things, or cast only votes, that they can say they are "proud" of. You seem to be putting yokes on the necks of disciples and binding burdens difficult to bear that you yourself will not lift a finger to move. Is this consonant with your notion of the the good and the beautiful? You know far too much to be wholly inculpable. I almost never say this, but I fear for your soul.
I notice you don't discuss the Catechism.

This legitimate exercise of political responsibility does not include voting for laws that contain things that fundamentally contradict faith or morals or which involve a compromise with intrinsic evil.
For example, if a law permitting abortion is in place, it would be wrong to vote for a law overturning it except in the case of rape and incest if the law stated in a preamble that abortion was a human right in those cases. Likewise, if a law permitting abortion is in place it would be wrong to vote for a law repealing it that was to be voted together with a law authorizing same sex marriages.
I'd love to see the argument that voting for a candidate despite his stance involves "a compromise with intrinsic evil." It seems to be obviously false, particularly given the specious distinction between overturning/repealing a law and passing a new law, a distinction that a philosopher such as yourself ought to see as one that needs justification. As to the hypothetical involving a law with a rider on same-sex marriage, politics is the art of the possible. If that is the best option before you, and there are proportionate reasons to prefer that option to the other alternatives before you, then there is no compromise involved. Rather, there is positive work to do the best that you can do given the political circumstances. As far as I can tell, you have simply made gratuitous assertions here without the benefit of any reasons to support them, and that is hardly in keeping with the seriousness of the matter.
A landslide electorally combined with a record turnout will be a double mandate.
While the assertions above were unjustified, this one is simply unwise. Abstaining in a case of record turnout simply makes the percentage margin larger, and anyone who follows politics on a regular basis knows that the margin looms larger than the absolute vote. The fact that there is some variation in what will by all accounts be a record turnout is completely irrelevant.
It's this sort of cobbled-together, thoughtless emotionalism that will prevent far too many Catholics who ought to have known better from casting their ballots for McCain.

The most authoritative text presently on the "duty" to vote is Guadium et spes no. 75. Ignore the English translation; only the Latin is truly authoritative. The English translation speaks of a "duty" and "right" to vote. But the original Latin mentions no such thing:
Memores ergo omnes cives sint iuris simul et officii suo libero suffragio utendi ad bonum commune promovendum.
No reputable -- indeed none at all, but I am aware of all the reputable ones -- examination of conscience booklet asks a person if they have voted according to their ability in every national, state, and local election. These can happen as often as several times a year.
In terms of more recent magisterial articulations, the most authoritative is "Doctrinal Note on some questions regarding the participation of Catholics in political life" from the CDF under Ratzinger. Nothing in there can be responsibly interpreted to mean that Catholics should be told that not voting is a sin. That is a grave sin against charity, especially considering that many Catholics suffer from scrupulosity.
JPII's writing in EV is ambiguous. It begins by including a situation where two intrinsically unjust laws are both up for consideration presumably in the absence of anything intrinsically unjust to overturn or repeal. But it ends with limiting the teaching statement to situations involving the overturning or repealing of intrinsically unjust laws. This legitimate exercise of political responsibility does not include voting for laws that contain things that fundamentally contradict faith or morals or which involve a compromise with intrinsic evil.
For example, if a law permitting abortion is in place, it would be wrong to vote for a law overturning it except in the case of rape and incest if the law stated in a preamble that abortion was a human right in those cases. Likewise, if a law permitting abortion is in place it would be wrong to vote for a law repealing it that was to be voted together with a law authorizing same sex marriages.
Whether voting for McCain involves an elicted act of the will in the first regard, it does in the second for voting for McCain involves acquiescing in one's will to his support for the slaughter of innocent children whom some may not think as valuable as those to be killed through abortion, but whom are just as precious in God's eyes and who may also judge as.
Only vote for McCain if your conscience would be clear on Judgment Day when facing an embryo slaughtered by the McCain machine, you could tell him that you are proud of your vote.
With respect to the mathematics of voting. I am a mathematician and a philosopher and I can say these things with certainty:
1. The SVALUE* of a voter in an election consisting of just 3 voters is higher than in an election consisting of n>3 voters where n is an odd integer, ceteris paribus, for races with exactly two candidates.
Someone with a penchant for making grandiose claims regarding solving numerous paradoxes and having philosophy masquarade as mathematics without cleanly separating the two seems to think that in this election, the SVALUE of a voter is the same as that in an election with just 3 voters; that's pure nonsense and an embarassment to mathematicians everywhere if this person is a mathematician as he suggests.
2. Ceteris paribus, the SVALUE of a voter in an election with c voters is greater than the SVALUE of a voter in an election with d voters just in case c>d for all c and d positive odd integers, for races with exactly two candidates.
*SVALUE of a voter v is the probability that the following counterfactual is true:
Had v not voted, the outcome of the election would have changed**
**changed is defined relative to the outcomes of win, loss, draw for a given candidate.
There is no lower bound to the SVALUE besides zero, theoretically. Given the finite capacity of the earth, there will be due to physical factors and limits on population. It is simple to prove that there is no lower bound (or more precisely no lower bound that corresponds with a real number) given certain philosophical assumptions regarding the counterfactual above.
The issue of issue-based voting is interesting, but it has no bearing on the simple proof alluded to above. On that subject, using a methodology in that spirit, McCain is forecast to lose soundly:
http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/PollyVote/
The cries of liberal media bias are either dishonest or uninformed. Karl Rove, no liberal, forecasts on the eve of the election that Obama will win in a landslide of 338-200
http://www.rove.com/election
The best thing to do to slow down the liberal avalanche is to sit out this election. The landslide electorally and in the popular vote is largely set in stone. What is not as set in stone is the turn out. A landslide electorally combined with a record turnout will be a double mandate. That would be Obama-Pelosi-Reid Cubed, instead of just Squared. Apply this Pope Benedict approved model of voter abstention to this election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4086296.st...

The race is a tossup. Make sure you get out and vote....
Do you believe anything the media says? Then don't believe the polls that they pay for, either!
If your brain doesn't automatically scream "BS" just by looking at the state polls, then check out this web site for detailed analysis of the polling:
http://stolenthunder.blogspot.com/

A.M.D.G.
IBD currently has Obama leading McCain by two percent. They were the most accurate polling group in 2004 (they were off by O.3% in predicting President Bush's victory). Get out there and vote tomorrow!

All of this is just sowing confusion. The bottom line is that Obama will set back pro-life efforts for a generation as it is GUARANTEED he will appoint pro-abortion judges to the Supreme Court and push the Freedom of Choice Act. We've fought for 30 years and are on the brink of finally sending the issue back to the states for real political debate and this will give Roe v. Wade another generation of killing. McCain could be better but that's all we have. GO OUT AND VOTE and get others to vote for him.
See what the Bishop of Biden's home town Scranton has to say: http://www.wiredcatholic.com/wc/2008/11/02/high-no...

Thanks, Tom, for being a calming voice in an already over-heated discussion. DBP, I apologize for being testy with you.
Down's Paradox (the significance of a vote), being a paradox, has two sides of approximately equal logic. One side sees that the vote of an individual has near zero significance and wonders why anyone bothers voting, since putting that much effort into something with that small a significance seems irrational; the other side says that to put that much effort into something that requires a reason must imply that the process and the vote is extremely significant. One cannot be both rational and irrational, both proportionate and disproportionate at the same time. This is an apparent paradox and both sides of it have been argued in this combox.
I have indicated my take on the problem - I think the problem lies in an imprecise use of the word significance. The matter is still open for debate among anyone who wants to try to resolve it.
I conclude that neither side is to blame for the paradox and Zippy is certainly allowed to use one side of it to frame his argument, as long as he concedes that there may be a matching argument on the other side that is equally difficult to get rid of. Both sides may be right; both sides may be wrong. We do not yet understand the situation of the paradox of significance enough to say who and why.
So, we do the best we can. Everyone, here is doing the best they can to make an informed decision on Tuesday. I think all people, here, agree that they wish McCain had not made the situation so difficult. I think we should print out and mail him all six parts of this debate by first class mail and charge him postage.
The matter of voter significance is a matter I may revisit someday, since I have some ideas relating to the geometry of voting (how people and preferences approach a decision by a kind of trajectory in state space) as well as memory functions (that many preferences get compressed into a single vote that somehow, seems to store the data). I may have to wait until retirement to write any papers (and since I plan never to retire...).
In any event, this will be my last comment on voting until after the election and the post-mortems begin. I am really sick of dealing with all of this mess - every single day I hear at least two or three discussions about the voting process and then I come here and have to deal with the same (necessary, I know, but it can still be overwhelming).
I know we all want God's will to be done in the election. I think that is the safest prayer, of all. I don't care who is elected as long as God's will is done. If his will means that we must suffer, well, then we must learn to accept our chastisement and be brave. If he wills a miracle, then we must realize that whether it be a purely pro-life candidate that is elected or only a mostly pro-life candidate (if Zippy will let me use that term), we dodged a bullet and we must work hard to cement the pro-life view in this country.
I will still post on non-vote topics, but I would rather go off and let things take their course, now, since it will be less stressful. I think we've all pretty much said what we have to say. I certainly have. I am content to let SDG and Zippy have the last words.
The Chicken

Chicken:
Thanks, I understand better what you're getting at with the math of voting.
I may take this up later elsewhere -- this is already a long comment thread and there are some pretty complicated ideas involved -- but for now I'll just say two things:
a) I think the candidate preferences, not the issues preferences, is the fundamental thing. The candidate preferences is what counts, literally, and an individual voter's candidate preferences may change without his issues preferences changing (and of course vice versa).
b) I like formalisms as much as the next guy, but before I draw conclusions I'd like to see the model adapted to the actual situation (in particular, accounting for the facts that more than 90% of the voters regard the presidential election as a two-candidate election, and that choosing to not vote is more likely (if it is) than voting for a third candidate).

Likening voting to daily Mass doesn't mean I take voting less seriously than you do. If it did, that would mean people attending daily Mass would be taking daily Mass less seriously than Sunday Mass. There's no obligation to surprise a loved one with a gift, but that doesn't mean you think the act a trifle.

This doesn't address what I said.

In a democratic society, voting is a general obligation. But the United States is not a democracy. It has become more and more like a democracy over the years, but it is historically a Republic.

The Catechism doesn't say that voting is morally obligatory in democracies but not in republics.

If America is a democracy like you say, then what gives? It should be possible to effect the will of the people.

When did I make any unqualified statement about the United States as democracy?

Likening voting to daily Mass doesn't mean I take voting less seriously than you do. If it did, that would mean people attending daily Mass would be taking daily Mass less seriously than Sunday Mass. There's no obligation to surprise a loved one with a gift, but that doesn't mean you think the act a trifle.
In a democratic society, voting is a general obligation. But the United States is not a democracy. It has become more and more like a democracy over the years, but it is historically a Republic. Senators used to be appointed by State legislatures. If voting for a senator were a universal obligation then it would be impermissible for Americans to vote for a constitutional amendment repealing the part of the amendment making Senators directly elected by the people, since that would be casting their obligation off on someone else. If you view America as more a democracy than an orderly Republic, then you would be obliged to vote. If you view America like I do as a Republic, then you wouldn't. It comes down to national identity and national good, a prudential judgment. I don't try to turn back the clock on this one though; I recognize democratization is here to say. Accepting two party rule is like acquiescing to tyranny and a self-fulfilling prophecy. For the Libertarian candidate, polls show that a majority of Americans wanted him included in the presidential debate. Clearly, then a majority of Americans do not favor two party rule. If America is a democracy like you say, then what gives? It should be possible to effect the will of the people.

Repost to make my comment more readable with elaboration.
In a greater elaboration of the citizen's duty to participate politically, the magisterium lists voting as just one of a variety of ways in which a citizen may do so, noting that not all are called to participate in the same way. Not everyone pays taxes, including payroll taxes. A good portion don't. That's why Obama's claim of a tax cut for 95% of Americans is misleading. If you are saying that military service -- which you concede is what the Catechism is referring to -- is obligatory only when the nation is invaded, then you have to ask when paying taxes is obligatory. Obviously only when you are required by law. The same is true of voting. In the United States voting is not required by law. In other countries, for instance, Australia, it is. The Catechism is a universal catechism and designed to be a blueprint for local catechisms more applicable to countries and cultures. I don't think your interpretation of military service as speaking of invasion is plausible by the way. Invasion is a cataclysmic event. Rather I think the Catechism has in mind countries where military service for a number of years is required by law. The world doesn't begin and end with the United States.
The presence of something in the Catechism doesn't add any more authority to a teaching than it had prior to its placement there as the Catechism contains no new teachings and is not intended to add authority to existing teachings. So if there is some teaching that voting is a universal obligation then we would see it in another teaching instrument. SDG has the extreme view that the right to vote is universal, that it would be wrong in every circumstance for a nation to deny women suffrage. That has no support in the Catechism whatsoever. If the right to vote is not a universal right, then voting can't be a universal obligation even restriced to those able to vote. We know this because if voting is not a universal right then someone may not only be justly not given the right but someone may on his own iniative decide that the right was not justly given him. For example, a woman just granted suffrage may decide that it's best that women not have suffrage and best that she not vote. Interpreting voting as a universal obligation for those with the right, wouldn't allow a woman to do that.
You have seriously misunderstood me. This is not my math, it is good, published literature. Tom questioned how it could be applied regarding significance. I have attempted to show how. I may be slightly out of my depth in that I haven't had time to read all of the social theories of voting, but I sort of do know the math, since I do research and publish in the area of dynamical systems theory (the math used in the Mayer and Brown article).
No one is questioning the math in the article, Tom just questioned the applicability of it to the problem at hand.

No, it is you who have seriously misunderstood me. Do you have any interest in understanding what I have to say or just what mathematicians like Tom have to say? You don't seem to have realized, even though it has been pointed out to you, that on one or two occasions I said the same thing Tom said. I questioned how the math you cited could be applied in the way you applied it. The "mathematics" that was wrong was your own, your application of those papers and your application of other things "to the problem at hand"; if what you were doing there in applying mathematics, wasn't mathematics, then you should have in transparency to your readers said so and instead described it as "guess work" or "chickenology." You don't seem to have seen the significance of what I wrote here:
I don't see how it [the math you cited] disagrees with one of the two points I made, though.

That was me. Italics off Hopefully it is off now.

A senator would as would a delegate to a convention. 2240 of the Catechism puts the moral obligation to vote in the same category as paying taxes and serving in the military.
Actually, the obligation is "to defend your country," and in the context of the later quote, this means that you can't simply abandon your country when it is invaded by aggressors, since your country is where God has placed you. It is also grouped with paying taxes, which is clearly not optional except for serious reasons. Voting is something which you HAVE been assigned responsibility to society to do, so it does fall within the class of obligations you listed.
I believe you have misinterpreted Catholic teaching on this point, which does put the obligation on the same level as other serious obligations, such as Sunday Mass attendance. Perhaps this misinterpretation, although it appears to be innocent, has caused you to take this obligation less seriously than you ought.
A law permitting abortion in the case of rape, incest, and jeopardy to the mother's life is "intrinsically unjust" and "it is therefore never licit ... to .. vote for it" or to campaign for it. The next paragraph does not prejudice this. If it did, it'd be reduced to nonsense. John McCain doesn't favor rolling back pro-abortion laws; he favors creating new pro-abortion laws once Roe v. Wade is overturned. Upon Roe's reversal, he would be for laws on the federal or state level enshrining abortion as a right in the cases of rape, incest and risk to the mother's life. Voting for such a law in a state with currently no abortion law would be "never licit" as the law is "intrinsically unjust." Voting for such a law as long as the law is merely functional when the state has already passed a more permissive law is a different story, presuming one's intention is good. Evangelium Vitae can't be spinned to be an endorsement of voting for McCain. If anything, it suggests that voting for McCain for the purpose of having legislatures one day do things which are "never licit" would be formal cooperation in evil.
You've confused a couple of concepts here. First, no one denies that there might be serious reasons to abstain from voting if you believed that action likely to produce more good than voting for the less restrictive law. That is a matter left to the judgment of the individual. I simply have no conviction that there are any alternatives realistically likely to produce more good than supporting a better candidate who might actually be in office. Others obviously differ, which they are entitled to do.
With regard to whether EV supports the freedom to vote for McCain, it clearly does. Voting for McCain precisely because he will pass laws with exceptions for rape and incest is clearly wrong; there is no question about that. However, voting for McCain because his position relative to his opponent is more restrictive is a perfectly good reason to rationally prefer McCain and to indicate this preference (and voting is a preference as between democratic options, not an absolute endorsement). EV poses a case where both laws are intrinsically unjust, but one is less so. We have the same case with this election. Again, this doesn't mean that one MUST vote for McCain, but one must have a serious, articulable, objective reason for why abstaining or voting third party is better than voting for McCain, since voting for McCain is clearly a licit option.

Dear DBP,
You have seriously misunderstood me. This is not my math, it is good, published literature. Tom questioned how it could be applied regarding significance. I have attempted to show how. I may be slightly out of my depth in that I haven't had time to read all of the social theories of voting, but I sort of do know the math, since I do research and publish in the area of dynamical systems theory (the math used in the Mayer and Brown article).
No one is questioning the math in the article, Tom just questioned the applicability of it to the problem at hand.
Let me try it, again. Behind a final vote in a winner-take-all election, there are many difference preferences (ranking of importance) on many different topics for each individual voter. While the vote is taking shape in the days and weeks before the vote, these preferences are in a constant state of flux - coalitions are made and dissolved among the various topics, although you don't see this because people do no have to state their rankings each day in public (it was part of the Mayer and Brown paper to give crude measures of this). You only see the final vote. These little clumps of coalitions may develop for any number of reasons: personal friendships, religious reasons, etc.
The final vote is a frozen snapshot of the ranking of the preferences of the voters at the moment of the vote. There many be n different topics of importance among m different voters and they give rise to a weighted spectrum that usually shifts around a central point until it settles in (converges) to some final distribution on the day of the election.
Where you give your weight to which topics within the total number can have a tremendous influence on the final election result and can cause the election results to change like greased lightening over seemingly very insignificant things. This does not always happen - there can be sedate elections, but in a highly polarized election, such as this, things can turn very quickly, as they did because of the sudden change in the economy.
Thus, the final vote in a winner-take-all election masks the true significance of each voter's contribution to the final vote because it filters the rankings to an n state outcome, where n is the number of candidates (n very small). A candidate is a surrogate for the rankings of the voters. It would take a very large number of candidates (the same as the number of tournaments in the Mayer and Brown paper) to properly express the weights of each rankings of the voters. In statistical mechanics, we call this a partition function - how many voters fall into the different possible ranking slots.
The spectrum of rankings, its shape, etc., is extremely important in some cases, in determining the final vote, but the winner-take-all election smears out the data. It is a very course filter. One does not see the relative contributions of each subcomponent in the ranking process.
There may be many people who disagree about p out of the n possible ranking topics, but there is enough weight to push them all toward one particular candidate. Have you ever heard of the phrase, "politics makes strange bed fellows"?
Given that there is this masked significance to each vote, it makes no sense to say that each vote, simply because its final product is reduced to one candidate, is insignificant or disproportionate to the outcome. This, by the way, is why Down's paradox is wrongly phrased. The word significance is applied to the vote outcome, only. Really, in a multi-ranked game with m voters, it is coming to be understood that there may be multiple Nash equilibria that may be reached. The particular input of any one voter pushing towards a particular equilibrium state can be huge. Unfortunately, the final vote does not show this influence. This is the way significance should be defined, not the results of a filtering process that simply smears out the whole state space to a single point.
I am pretty sure that these ideas are pretty close to being the right way to look at the process, but since I don't have the technical apparatus of game theory at my finger tips, I will stop here.
As I pointed out earlier, each person's vote is a measure of his ranking of the importance of each topic under his consideration as represented by a surrogate (candidate).
Zippy is, apparently, claiming that people who consider voting for McCain must consider pro-life issues more important than the state of their immortal soul (since they would be harming it by voting for McCain) or rather that McCain is not a true surrogate for life issues that are ranked very highly. This may be true, but since as I have tried to show, a vote can be significant for setting the agenda for discourse (ranking the options for public debate), we loose all voice in voting for a nonviable third party candidate in this election. The correct strategy is to build up strength for the third party between elections, not recommend that they be voted for at the last minute.
The Chicken
Oh, DBP, next time, skip the abusive ad hominem. I am not trying to bamboozle you with fancy math. The mathematics of voting is hard. I am trying to do my homework, but given the time constraints I am faced with (the topic of significance only came to my attention about a week ago), I am trying to summarize a very complex subject as best I can while I am trying to study it. A am a theoretician in the hard sciences, so, while I may be incorrect, I am not trying to blow smoke. If you don't like my presentation, feel free to ignore it.

I would say voting is more like daily Mass. You don't need a serious reason.

It is not immediately apparent how this might be reconciled with the Catechism's description of voting as "morally obligatory," which going to daily Mass is not.

My comment on applicability was not "taken very seriously"; Tom's understandably was. St. Benedict in my opinion would have taken both seriously. When an erudite chicken dismisses the opinions of unlearned people like me with a lone sentence and wikipedia link, and then "takes very seriously" the identical opinion of a mathematician spending several pages in reply, it tells us two things: making someone else feel out of his depth runs the risk of someone else coming along making you look "foolish" and "out of [your own] depth" and forcing you to acknowledge the "wildness" of your claims; relying on the former person as a polemic against one's opponent runs that same risk. I know this makes me look bad, but I speak in charity and am suggesting the "lessons" proposed by the erudite chicken as something we could all imbibe.
In the three links offered by SDG supposedly contradicting the "mantra" that "voting for McCain is exceedingly unlikely in any arbitrary ordinary case to tip the scales", in the first, that fact is affirmed not denied and has been reaffirmed by Tom above. The next two links appear to be malformed, but I assume they were meant to link to comments by a chicken applying fancy math in ways that both a puny layman and a true blue mathematician, question.
I thought it was I not Zippy who disputed the applicability of those papers. Zippy's position as portrayed by the chicken is not my own. I believe some individual votes are very significant in almost all national elections, including this one. The proportion of significant votes to total votes cast however is small. Therefore, the probability that a randomly selected voter will cast a significant vote is small. The chicken is characterizing Zippy's position as, to analogize:
There's a bag of 1000 marbles and Zippy says they are all purple; none are green.
I am saying the bag of 1000 marbles does have a few green marbles, say 3. A randomly selected marble has therefore a 0.3% chance of being green.
Crytopgraphic hashes. A change in the value of any one bit of data will in virtually every case dramatically change the hash value. The chicken gives the impression that votes work the same way. That a change in any one vote will in most, many or a high minority of cases dramatically change the outcome of a national election. That's nonsense. If he specified what the proportion is I must have missed it admist the references to strange attractors and graph theory. Joe the Plumbers and charismatic voters are rare. The fact that no one can predict who will become a Joe the Plumber does not mean we can't know that they will be rare.
I guess I was right when I said "then there must be something wrong with your mathematics." ;) Two links for consideration.
The fancy math the chicken is using is just technical window dressing masking what is at root an empirical and outlandish claim, not a deducible truth of math. If you fell for that, then now you know better. I didn't digest the chickens new masterful mathematics but I did catch some talk about how inferior voting systems lend themselves to two party rule. I believe that's true. But the response shouldn't be to accept the inferior voting system and then make do with it. The response should be to try to change it. No theorem of math can disprove that the best way to change this inferior voting system is to consistently vote third party and encourage others to do so. Vox and I have had discussions on this in the part 5 thread. Vox, if you are reading this and you have more to add, I suggest you add it to this thread for convenience's sake.

I would say voting is more like daily Mass. You don't need a serious reason. If you've been assigned responsibility in a serious way by society, then you would need a serious reason. A senator would as would a delegate to a convention. 2240 of the Catechism puts the moral obligation to vote in the same category as paying taxes and serving in the military. You don't need a serious reason to not serve in the military. A draft would be a different story. If voting were a universal obligation like Sunday Mass, the juxtaposition in 2240 doesn't make sense.
In the case of an intrinsically unjust law, such as a law permitting abortion or euthanasia, it is therefore never licit to obey it, or to "take part in a propaganda campaign in favour of such a law, or vote for it".98
A particular problem of conscience can arise in cases where a legislative vote would be decisive for the passage of a more restrictive law, aimed at limiting the number of authorized abortions, in place of a more permissive law already passed or ready to be voted on. Such cases are not infrequent. It is a fact that while in some parts of the world there continue to be campaigns to introduce laws favouring abortion, often supported by powerful international organizations, in other nations-particularly those which have already experienced the bitter fruits of such permissive legislation-there are growing signs of a rethinking in this matter. In a case like the one just mentioned, when it is not possible to overturn or completely abrogate a pro-abortion law, an elected official, whose absolute personal opposition to procured abortion was well known, could licitly support proposals aimed at limiting the harm done by such a law and at lessening its negative consequences at the level of general opinion and public morality. This does not in fact represent an illicit cooperation with an unjust law, but rather a legitimate and proper attempt to limit its evil aspects.

A law permitting abortion in the case of rape, incest, and jeopardy to the mother's life is "intrinsically unjust" and "it is therefore never licit ... to .. vote for it" or to campaign for it. The next paragraph does not prejudice this. If it did, it'd be reduced to nonsense. John McCain doesn't favor rolling back pro-abortion laws; he favors creating new pro-abortion laws once Roe v. Wade is overturned. Upon Roe's reversal, he would be for laws on the federal or state level enshrining abortion as a right in the cases of rape, incest and risk to the mother's life. Voting for such a law in a state with currently no abortion law would be "never licit" as the law is "intrinsically unjust." Voting for such a law as long as the law is merely functional when the state has already passed a more permissive law is a different story, presuming one's intention is good. Evangelium Vitae can't be spinned to be an endorsement of voting for McCain. If anything, it suggests that voting for McCain for the purpose of having legislatures one day do things which are "never licit" would be formal cooperation in evil.

But since we can't be constantly juggling the mathematics of opportunity cost in our head, it is fine to just go with the flow except for the most important decisions.
I don't disagree. Just as there are can be good and serious reasons to miss Mass, there can be good and serious reasons to miss voting. God may be calling you not to go to Mass if you have a serious reason that justifies not doing so. My point is only that, like Mass, voting is a serious obligation that sometimes requires us to put even other good things that are less important out of the way. You can't just say "I didn't feel God was calling me to Mass this week" or even "I felt like praying to God in a different way this week" as a serious reason. Voting is similar.

...inside a movie theater?

Never. Trick-or-treating.

We need but ask one question if and when we vote:
Which choice would be most pleasing to God?
Pretend that God is right there with you when you vote and then ask yourself that question again. Then, vote and realize that you needn't have pretended since He really was right there. Can you imagine a member of the Holy Family voting for someone who supports government sanctioned killing of innocent children, especially considering what they went through? Peace is a sign of good moral judgment.

I'm sure you don't mean it this way, but it comes off like you think little of others if you think that the level of moral reflection that has been expended so far has not brought them so far as your thought experiment. Ditto if you think I would expend all this energy defending a course of action that deprived me of peace with God.
Reconsider your thought experiment in light of Pope John Paul II's scenario from Evangelium Vitae. Could you imagine a member of the Holy Family as a public official casting a decisive vote for legislation restricting some abortions while permitting others? If not, your experiment would seem to be at odds with the Holy Father's teaching. If so, wherein lies the difference?

One can participate in politics without voting. Youth who participate in peaceful pro-life demonstrations don't vote but they are politically active.
One can contribute to the good of society in many ways and there is a "munus" of man to do so, but the way we do it is an individual calling. One has limited time and resources; not all are called to place these in the political sphere.
Catechism 2240 does speak of an obligation to exercise one's right to vote. But the secular dogma was in accepting an unquestioned right to vote. There'd be nothing wrong with society going back to a higher age for suffrage and there'd be nothing wrong intrinsically with going back to selective suffrage. If Zippy's position is contrary to Catholic doctrine, then SDG should be able to refute it without appeal to secular doctrine or the memory of Ronald Reagan. I don't interpret the Catechism there the way you might. They may have in mind countries where voting is obligatory by law. A college student who decides to spend 10 hours studying instead of doing the necessary research for his local elections is doing nothing wrong. You don't need any more a reason to not vote than you do to vote. In both cases you need a good reason to justify the time you are spending that could be spent doing something else. But since we can't be constantly juggling the mathematics of opportunity cost in our head, it is fine to just go with the flow except for the most important decisions.
One person may be called by God to educate himself on the issues and vote accordingly. Another person may be called by God to deeper personal prayer and spend the time saved in that prayer and reflection. If one chooses, based on simply a stirring of one's heart, to be steeped in prayer and meditation instead of political engagement, God won't tell you when you approach him in prayer: "You better have a good reason for spending so much time in prayer and meditation that you don't have the time to spend a few days to familiarize yourself with the issues and vote." God would be pleased that you put him first and left providence to Providence. It'd be a different story if you were a U.S. Senator needed in a critical close vote; there your vote has a high chance of being significant and you have an additional obligation to represent your State. Here, your vote has a low chance of being significant.
I think it is common sense that for many people political participation harms their practice of moral virtue. Browsing any political forum would make one see it, it not meeting some scientific standard, notwithstanding. If science and math were needed for moral virtue, then I guess we would need to decanonize a whole bunch of saints. If "strange attractors" or "mutually reinforcing" ever appears in a teaching instrument signed by the Holy Father, then I'll stand corrected. Rigor has a place in science and math. It's not something that has a place in the virtue of wisdom. St. Francis of Assisi shared with you:
Hail Queen Wisdom, the Lord salute thee with thy sister Holy-Pure Simplicity. . . . Holy Wisdom confounds Satan and all his wickednesses. Pure Holy Simplicity confounds all the wisdom of this world and the wisdom of the body.

We need but ask one question if and when we vote:
Which choice would be most pleasing to God?
Pretend that God is right there with you when you vote and then ask yourself that question again. Then, vote and realize that you needn't have pretended since He really was right there. Can you imagine a member of the Holy Family voting for someone who supports government sanctioned killing of innocent children, especially considering what they went through? Peace is a sign of good moral judgment.

oops, that was me on my iPhone.

...inside a movie theater?

oops, that was me on my iPhone.

The secular dogma of voting as an unquestioned right permeated many of your polemical points against Zippy.

Dear DBP
Perhaps I'm too stupid, but I've been following this (now rather tiring) whole affair and I didn't get that impression at all, quite on the contrary. It's Zippy's position (criticized by SDG) that seems to be giving the act of voting some very weird connotations...

The secular dogma of voting as an unquestioned right permeated many of your polemical points against Zippy.
Just to be clear, the obligation of political participation is a natural obligation, not a secular one. Man is by nature a social and political animal. There may be serious reasons not to participate in some particular exercise of the political process, but the obligation motivating SDG's position should charitably be assumed to be the natural obligation to participate in political society. If you aren't going to exercise your opportunity to participate in the political process, then you had better have a good reason, because natural reason says that you should avail yourself of such opportunities as a responsible member of human society.

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