The final ten episodes of Battlestar Galactica start airing this Friday, and the producers plan to answer a bunch of questions, some of which have been around since the beginning of the show and some of which were only recently introduced: What happened to Earth? What are the Virtual "Head" beings (e.g., Head Six, Head Baltar) that only some people see? Can Human and Cylon live together? Who lives and who dies? And, of course, who is the final Cylon?
I'm going to tell you.
Or at least I'm going to tell you who I think it is.
I've made a significant number of BSG predictions before and gotten more than my share right, so I'm going to put my cards on the table here and tell you who I think the clues point to.
If I can shift from a cards metaphor to a dice metaphor, sometimes you have to roll the hard six, so here goes.
Continued below the fold for those who don't want to read this speculation.
First let me say the fundamental thing that the producers of the show need to do with revealing the final Cylon: They need to impress us. After peeling away the masks of eleven Cylon models one at a time (or four at a time, in one case), they've created a sense of expectancy. By having the fourth season opening credits declare "TWELVE CYLON MODELS . . . SEVEN ARE KNOWN . . . FOUR LIVE IN SECRET . . . ONE WILL BE REVEALED" they are promising the viewers a dramatic revelation. If it's a letdown, if it's anticlimactic, then they haven't done their job.
This has implications for who the final Cylon can and can't be.
1) It can't be a new character. We won't have any dramatic investment in a new character, meaning any such revelation would be a letdown.
2) It can't be a minor character. There just would be a collective "So what?" reaction if it turned out that the final Cylon was Hotdog or Racetrack or Helo or Mr. Gaeta or Tom Zarek. The final Cylon must be an established, major character.
3) It won't be someone who has been recently pointed at by the producers as a possible Cylon. This means it can't be Baltar, who was desperate to be a Cylon just one season ago. It would be very anti-climactic if the producers said "Guess what! After all that Baltar-is-a-Cylon speculation, it turns out he's a Cylon after all!"
For the same reason it can't be Kara Thrace–the current character being given the "Is she a Cylon?" routine. They've been working the "Is Kara a Cylon?" theme heavily since she first got back from Earth–which is why President Roslin tried to shoot her dead and why she spent all that time screaming in the brig and why her crew on the Demetrius mutinied against her. Every character on the show–including Kara herself in a weak moment or two–has wondered if she's a Cylon, so it can't be her.
Smart money, though, would be for them to make it look more like she's a Cylon before turning around and revealing that she's not (possibly by the revelation of the final Cylon's identity).
4) If you take the list of established major characters and cross off the ones eliminated above (or already established as Cylons) then you get a very small number of possible candidates, so at this point I'll just go ahead and tell you who the final Cylon is . . .
.
.
.
.
(EXTRA SPOILER SPACE)
.
.
.
.
(LAST CHANCE!)
.
.
.
.
"Adama's a Cylon."
We were told it in the very first season, by Leoben, the Cylon with mystical insights, who was also right that Kara would lead the fleet to Earth. I'm not saying that Leoben consciously knew that Admiral (then Commander) Adama was a Cylon. But for some mystical or subconscious reason, he spoke the truth.
Before I present reasons why Adama is a Cylon, think about who the remaining candidates would be–what other major characters are left that could play this role?
1) Adama's son, Lee. He's a major character, but he's also a major snoozefest. Which is the bigger dramatic revelation? That Admiral Adama, who has been leading the fleet all this time, is a Cylon or that his easily-manipulated puppydog politician son is?
2) Head Six. Baltar's inner vision of a Six, who may or may not take other virtual forms, is a major character and hasn't been shown to be one of the twelve Cylon models. She could be one, but since she's taken the form of a Cylon for either all or almost all of the series, it would just be weird–not stunning–to reveal that the final Cylon is nonphysical. She's also much more interesting as a character if she is, as she claims "an angel" of the Cylon God.
3) President Roslin. This is the only other dramatically sound contender for the part of final Cylon. Through all four seasons the fleet has been led by Roslin and Adama–sometimes with them at odds with each other–and you get the most dramatic oomph if the final Cylon turns out to be one of humanity's two greatest protectors.
And there would be oomph to revealing that it's Roslin. At this point, I'd be more shocked for it to be her than for it to be Adama.
That's for two reasons: (a) It would interfere with her whole cancer/dying leader mojo and (b) they haven't set her up to be the final Cylon the way they have Adama. There won't be that moment of seeing how all the clues connect if it turned out to be her.
The logical thing to do would be to have Roslin's cancer plotline progress (possibly resulting in her death, possibly not) and reveal Adama as the final Cylon.
What clues are there that Adama is a Cylon?
Starting with on-screen clues, I've already mentioned one: We were told he was one, by the one Cylon with the mystical chops to speak the truth even without realizing it consciously.
In terms of dramatic structure, that's a really big clue. It harks back all the way to the first season, and that means it brings a large amount of "closure payload" with it.
Another possible on-screen clue is that at the very end of the original mini-series, Adama found a slip of paper in his quarters that said "There are twelve Cylon models." They've never explained that. Who wrote it? How did it get there? My guess is that Adama himself wrote the paper under the influence of subconscious Cylon programming, the way Boomer found herself doing strange things back in those days.
That's a very minor thing, but here is a larger one: When four of the Final Five had their "All Along the Watchtower" moment and realized who they were, it was preceded by them hearing snatches of the song and thinking it was coming from within the ship. Colonel Tigh even went to Adama and angrily demanded an investigation of the frustrating music he was hearing.
Adama didn't bat an eyelash and promised him one. Then nothing happened with that thread.
This is a dog-that-didn't-bark situation.
Instead of expressing incredulity at the existence of mysterious music his XO was claiming to hear, Adama just accepted the idea. He could have done this just to humor his unhinged friend, but he also could have done it because he was hearing the music too.
And then there's this: Once Lucy Lawless gets "unboxed," she promises to reveal the Final Five to Laura Roslin and then as soon as Adama shows up on the Cylon basestar where they're at, Lucy suddenly announces–for no apparent reason–that only four of the Final Five are with the fleet. Why? Because the fifth has just joined them on the basestar.
Also, when Lucy Lawless first got her vision of the Final Five, she recognized the central one of them and said, "I'm sorry. I had no idea." The other four–Tigh, Tori, Tyrol, and Sam–are less likely to be characters that she would say this to. But she'd be quite likely to recognize the Admiral of the Fleet and apologize to him if she was suddenly aware that the fleet was being led by one of the Final Five.
When Tigh finally tells Adama that he (Tigh) is a Cylon, Adama TOTALLY LOOSES IT. He gets violent, raging drunk, becomes self-destructive, and can't pull it together AT ALL. He ends up as a collapsed, sobbing heap on his cabin floor, and his son–puppydog Lee–has to conduct the next stage of life-and-death negotiations with the Cylons.
His reaction is far disproportionate to what would be believable of a man as strong as Adama learning that his XO was a Cylon. Even though the two had known each other for 40 years, Adama had been living in a paranoid, "Anyone can be a Cylon" environment for years, and the reaction he had just struck me as over-the-top for the revelation that a friend and comrade turned out to be Cylon (especially a friendly Cylon).
But it struck me as entirely proportionate to the reaction that he should have if Tigh's revelation forced Adama to confront the fact that he, too, is a Cylon. Maybe when he heard the music in the nebula, Adama got a glimpse into his true nature but, like Boomer, was able to deny it for a long time. Then, when Tigh says (loose paraphrase), "That music I heard back in the nebula made me realize I'm a Cylon," suddenly Adama's worst fears concerning himself are confirmed and he looses it. This is the moment he truly had to accept what he was.
And it's at this point his attitude changes, and he's willing to go to Earth with the Cylons and to try to make peace with them.
There are more possible clues I could point to (his seeming ability to "project" the image of his dead wife, his hearing visions/voices when on the Cylon ship 40 years ago at the end of the first Cylon war, etc.), and I may record some more as they occur to me, but let me leave you with two off-screen clues:
1) Although the details are not yet known, the general premise of the prequel series Caprica is known, and Adama's family was right there at the beginning of human-appearing Cylons. In fact, SPOILER SWIPE: One of Adama's siblings had a Cylon based off of her after she died tragically young. Maybe the same thing happened to Adama himself.
2) After the series finishes they're doing another TV-movie, like Razor. This one is called "The Plan," and it involves the original plan that the Cylons had for the destruction of the colonies and what they meant to happen next. Various actors have been hired to reprise their roles as Cylons, both from the Significant Seven and the Final Five, for this movie.
But you know who's directing it? Edward James Olmos (Adama).
So the best candidate for the final Cylon is directing the Cylon-centric movie. Why would they do that?
Here's a bit of science fiction history: When they were making Star Trek III, the Search for Spock, they needed a way for Leonard Nimoy to be involved with the project (they didn't figure they could keep that secret) while maintaining a kind of semi-plausible deniability regarding his role in the project (they didn't just want to say, "He's playing Spock, meaning that Spock comes back from the dead in this movie"). So what did they do? They let him direct.
We might be looking at somethin
g here, with Olmos getting to direct as partial cover for the fact he's also playing a key Cylon role in the Cylon-centric film.
That's all as may be, but either way, Adama is my bet for the final Cylon.
We'll see if I'm right.
P.S. One more thing . . . that promotional photo-thingie the producers had done for Entertainment Weekly. Although some cast members have disputed it, Ron Moore says that the photo contains what can be read as clues to the fourth season (e.g., Lee wearing civilian clothes, indicating he's not returning to flight status, Tyrol contemplating the knife, reflecting his self-destructive turn this season, etc.). Here's the photo (click to enlarge or GO HERE to view in interactive detail):
The picture is consciously modeled off of Leonardo DaVinci's The Last Supper, which records the moment the Jesus declared "One of you will betray me," and the disciples react in shock.
We have a similarly dramatic moment in this picture, and the relevant revelation would seem to be either "Head Six exists" or "You are the Final Cylon," with it being misdirection that the Natalie Six is pointing toward (but not at) Head Six. (Ron Moore would never simply give away the big revelation in a promotional photo; expect misdirection.)
But follow the path that Natalie's finger is pointing past the shocked-looking Head Six. Who is she really fingering? Adama. who doesn't want to acknowledge what is going on. Lee's looking like he doesn't want to acknowledge it, either. Baltar may be looking at Head Six for confirmation of the announcement. Tigh's (potentially) watching Adama (or Lee) for a reaction, and Roslin is looking at Adama coolly (icily?). Helo is looking at Natalie intensely, taking in what she's saying, and Sharon is looking at Natalie while tentatively pointing as Adama, as if to ask "You mean it's him?"
There's nothing here that can't be read another way, which is Moore's intention, but it looks to me that the real dramatic focus of the picture is Adama, not Head Six, and that the revelation being made concerns him.
